18 December 2024

Do High Speed trains have to travel in a straight line?

Well, the first question to answer is ... what is the definition of a High Speed train? Obviously, it is any train which travels fast. However, for the purposes of this article it can be considered any speed over (125 mph) 200 kph. In the UK, trains are limited to a maximum of (125 mph.) 200 kph. even though many of the engines, especially the new ones now arriving, are capable of reaching (140mph.) 224 kph. and have been known to do so on the West Coast Main Line (WCML). The last stop southwards from Scotland and the North West is Warrington. From there, the trains run non-stop to London Euston. On the stretch of line from Crewe to Rugby, trains have been known to make up for any accumulated lost time by running over 200 kph. and, therefore, are able to arrive at Euston on time. The timetable gives 1hr.45 mins. for the 182 miles from Warrington to Euston. That means an average of 167 kph. Obviously that means phases that are at lower speeds for part of the route, so some are higher, as I previously indicated.

Apart from the track itself, the limiting factor in High Speed is visual. Lineside signals of whatever sort cannot be relied upon at high speeds. Since the train passes them so fast, the humans cannot be relied upon to see them clearly and interpret the signals correctly. That means that all the information has to be given inside the driver's cab. The lineside information will still be given as before for those trains that use the line but do not travel at high speeds and are not adapted. The high speed trains will use information provided by visual display as well as sound when necessary. This conversion is already being made on some lines.


The ability to achieve high speeds obviously comes at a cost. The straightening of the tracks on present lines makes for higher speeds on all lines. The elimination of bottlenecks is a necessity on many lines as the bottlenecks mean low speed limits. Crossing junctions and changing from one line to another can also reduce speeds unless improvements have already been introduced. In most cases, even these improvements still mean a reduction in speed from the highest available on the line. It can, therefore, be seen that investing large amounts of money in improvements in the infrastructure is not worthwhile if there is no noticeable gain in speeds. So I cannot see lines being improved from 224 kph to just 240 kph.(max). The increase, therefore, has to be greater to make it worthwhile.

Another factor to be taken into account is the cost of running at high speeds. It is well known that the higher the speed, the greater the exponential (not linear) use of electricity to achieve the high speed. That being the case, all the high speed lines, in Europe at least, do not run at 400 kph.(250 mph.) or above. They run at about 320 kph.(200 mph.)

There is also another reason not to run trains at 400 kph. The stopping distance for a train at 320 kph. is up to 10 kilometres. In an emergency that could probably be shortened but would be extremely uncomfortable for the passengers. Also, the maximum braking level that can be applied would probably make the trains run the risk of derailment. This means that the higher the speed, the greater the distance between trains is needed for safe operation. Higher speeds thus mean lower capacity (fewer trains) on the line. That would make any increase in speed self-defeating. Let us assume then that the chosen working speed for HS2 and any other new or updated line is 320 kph.(max.).

To achieve something approaching the maximum speed means that turning corners is limited to gentle bends in the track. The radius of the curved track can be no more than 7 kilometres if one wants to try to maintain something like the maximum speed. That means if the track has to turn to avoid an obstacle, like a hill or mountain, some major infrastructure or even a population centre then the whole trajectory of the track has to be well-thought-out. In an island like Great Britain, there are many population centres in a relatively small area. In fact, the vast majority of the populace lives in England where about 53.3 million plus people live compacted together with relatively little separating them.That means you cannot build HS tracks in swathes in England as you can in France or Spain, because they have the room to do it.

With regard to "population centres in a relatively small area", in this island there is one destination with a large population, which was decided upon by our Victorian predecessors, that "all railways lead to London". This was a recognition of the Roman idea that "all roads lead to Rome". Everywhere else became secondary or so the central thinkers believed. With regard to High Speed rail lines this led to two ways of thinking.......(a) The HS lines were to be built from end to end i.e. London to Edinburgh, .. to Glasgow, .. to Manchester, .. to Leeds, .. to Cardiff, .. to Bristol, .. to Birmingham and so on. This was an adaptation of the way HS lines were being built in Spain and France. In these places the stops were built outside the intermediate cities, meaning the travelling public had to make its way to (or from) a stop in the middle of nowhere necessitating the need of a car when buses were not available. This is not in the spirit of the goal of use of carbon fuels, just making us more reliant on the car, meaning a higher use of carbon fuels.

The second way of thinking ..... (b) was based on the idea that passengers would want to be picked up at a place convenient for them and their use of public transport, to a destination we wanted to get to/ from where we can continue and terminate our journey in a convenient manner on public transport. This is a feather in the cap of the Victorian planners because over the years, destinations have been built together with public transport systems that have been built to satisfy the needs of travelling passengers. Therefore, since it is there use it.

The effect on the construction of any HS line means that the trains will take a little longer to leave the station until the line becomes high speed. The arrival time will also be delayed by a little amount. However, the benefit is that any delays will not be excessive while we are maximising the renovation and use of the original lines and stations in/into the cities. The money saved will be substantial.   

Before we progress, we should mention inclines. In the past many rail lines were built up mountain ranges with steep gradients. At first the steam engines had to struggle to take several coaches or freight wagons up the heights. This ability improved with the application of engines with greater horsepower. However, the aim was to make the existing infrastructure more efficient. Now our aim is to take advantage of our attained knowledge so as to reduce the need for deviations on the routes, and the capricious routing dictated to us by nimby landlords. 

To give you one example of a section of line that needs to be well-thought-out there is a section of the WCML that strikes me as illustrative as well as important, forever classified as "difficult!" - Shap Fell. Northbound trains on leaving Lancaster have to climb to a height of 300 metres to achieve a reasonable metreage to reach Penrith. For climbing "High-speed railways commonly allow 2.5% to 4%"  "For freight trains, gradients should be as gentle as possible, preferably below 1.5%." This means that the freight traffic would most likely use the existing WCML line (data gleaned from Wikipedia).
 
    (WCML - white line:    HS2 - blue line: blue plus orange line - the latest     modification to ensure the line stays outside of the National Park)
 

 Looking at the line from Lancaster to Penrith, on reaching Morecambe Bay the line runs at sea level next to the water for a good length. Sea levels rising with the change of climatic conditions and the expectancy of more frequent and more violent storms on stretches open to the sea would make it prudent and foresighted to start elevating the railway on to a viaduct to run behind the houses and not spoil their view of the Bay. This would run to at least Carnforth. The difficulty of incorporating the new fast line into the WCML so as to run through both Carnforth and Oxenholme would suggest that the new two tracks would not run through those stations, but near them(and most probably not providing an HS station at those two points).

From Oxenholme onwards the new fast two tracks would be planned towards Penrith more directly by elevating the line on to a viaduct as far as possible until a tunnel is essential. I calculate that at most such a tunnel towards Penrith would be between 10 and 12 kms. long (at an estimated maximum altitude of 300 metres). The whole stretch from Lancaster to Penrith could be reduced by the two new fast tracks from the existing 82.5 kms. to 75.5 kms. The saving in length would be thus 7 kilometres.  (quote taken from my blog,"The Crewe to Manchester fast railway link, and the WCML." 6 June 2023).  

I have looked at the HS2 line again from Oxenholme to Penrith. In order for it not to enter the Lake District National Park I have redrawn the line (it appears in orange on the picture of the map), ensuring it is totally outside the Park as given to me on Google Earth. The realignment has a length of 26kms. compared to my original offering which has a length of 28.4kms. So by accepting the updated version we save an additional 2.4kms. of new line construction. In addition to that my original version envisaged a tunnel at 300 metres of 10-12 kms. to cross the highest points. The new version tunnel needed to cross the highest points, would most likely be about 8kms. in length at an estimated height of 320 metres. Two short sections in the open air would be within those 8kms. so the actual tunnelling would be less (about 7km.).


Thus, it can be seen that there are ways of constructing HS viaducts as well as tunnels to solve the problems of straightening the lines. We will not construct completely straight lines for the tracks, but on the whole they will tend to have long bends and permit higher speeds than at present. Another point that should be emphasised is that I see all the trunk routes, such as the WCML and ECML, as having four tracks at least. This is to ensure that there are two tracks for high speed trains plus two for freight and stopping trains. The differing types of traffic are thus separated, and the route is thus assured of alternative tracks in case of need, such as an accident or necessary maintenance.They do not necessarily have to be constructed together. That is a preference but not essential. A very clear example of that is my proposal for HS2 from Newcastle to Edinburgh. This new line would venture further inland, past Coldstream, while the ECML would remain along the coast, through Berwick and Dunbar. The HS line to Edinburgh would have to curve towards Edinburgh so that it does not impinge on The Northumberland National Park. Similarly the HS2 from Carlisle to Glasgow could be straighter than the WCML, to complement it.

      (HS2 Dark blue line: Gretna Green to Glasgow          HS3? light blue line: Newcastle to        Edinburgh                       WCML & ECML white lines: Carlisle to Glasgow and Newcastle to Edinburgh)      

One last thing we have to consider is if there are going to be fast stopping trains along the HS corridors. They mustn´t stop every, say, two miles as some would want but we might find it useful to the local populations to provide one or two stopping points(and passing lines) between the last important town and the destination. This is done already on the HS1 between London St. Pancras  and Ashford in Kent  (before the trains branch off on to local commuter lines). After all it is logical to drum up custom when/where the capacity exists, as well as being economically beneficial.  

The next step is to commit to these modifications and, furthermore, put them into effect. This might be done at a moderate steady pace but before one realises it 3hours for the journey from London to Glasgow and Edinburgh can come into one´s grasp.                                                                                       

 

      















  

22 October 2024

What now for the European airlines?

 The latest events in the expected direction in which the market was heading gives us new food for thought. 

 EI-HOH - Airbus A320-272N - ITA Airways

The European Commission has nodded through both Lufthansa´s purchase of 41% of ITA and AF/KLM ´s purchase of 19% of SAS with conditions not talked about. On the other hand IAG´s bid for 80% of Air Europa, which it did not possess, was refused despite the airline group acceding to major limitations on its operations at Madrid Barajas, in Europe and on routes to Latin America. This has proved "too much to ask" by the shareholders of IAG. Thus the bid was withdrawn with a €50 million penalty to Air Europa´s owners. So that changes the future prospects from now on.

 EC-MIH - Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner - Air Europa

One person pointed out that IAG was the most profitable airline group in Europe aiming for a 10 to 15% return on capital which the bond markets appreciated through the increased shareprice. What was not mentioned was that as long as the (other) airline groups remained just profitable, their real owners do not insist--- in the case of Lufthansa (the German Government is the decider(the governments of Belgium,Switzerland, Austria have no say in the matter). The Italian government (for ITA) will be included in that list in the not distant future. 

As for AF/KLM, it is the French government which is the decision-maker. The Dutch have little say. For example, not long ago the Dutch government increased its share in the group up to near that of the French. This action irritated the French. The Dutch do not want to be left out nor be camp-followers --- but the real strategic decisions are taken by the French. For them and the Germans it is a question of power not profit. IAG has to satisfy the stock markets.

Why are things like this. The main countries to finance the European Union are the larger ones with greater economic power. That means in the EU advice is listened and adhered to from the Germans and French.  Thus the operations of those countries´airlines were given the go-ahead. In the question of IAG the Spanish government does not have enough clout, while the Brits. do not count any more having decided to be outside the EU community. Thus the conditions under which IAG could purchase Air Europa became unacceptable. The only airline which would have benefited, at all, was Volotea, with routes transfered from Iberia in Spain. However, it would still have remained a minnow.

EC-MTD - Airbus A319-111 - Volotea

I suspect that the deal(behind closed doors) which was being brokered was that Air France received Air Europa while Lufthansa got TAP

The rumour mill now states that IAG will make an effort to buy TAP to compensate its loss. Not only does the rumour mill say that Lufthansa is interested but also that the Portuguese government is thinking of not selling 100% as originally planned but a lesser share (unmentioned). We shall see.

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At this point, I would like to show a small graph. This indicates population size with the subsequent suggested economic power of the country, but also the potential for "home created" passenger traffic.................. 

List of European countries by population
Source    UN (World Population Prospects 2024)
Date    21 Aug 2024

Russia is the most populous country in Europe and the only one with a total number of humans above 100 mn.
This is a list of the 18 largest countries in Europe by population.
Turkey is not included in the list.
.

 Country/Region                    Population    
                                  2023            2024        
Russian Federation    145,440,500    144,820,423      wants other allies
Germany                   84,548,231     
84,552,242      LUFTHANSA group
United Kingdom          68,682,962      69,138,192       IAG
France                     66,438,822      66,548,530       AF/KLM
Italy                        59,499,453      59,342,867        
Spain                       47,911,579      47,910,526       IAG,  Air Europa, Volotea  
Poland                     38,762,844      38,539,201        LOT        
Ukraine                    37,732,836      37,860,221        at war  
Romania                   19,118,479      19,015,088        Tarom    
Netherlands              18,092,524      18,228,742        AF/KLM
Belgium                    11,712,893      11,738,763        
Czechia                    10,809,716      10,735,859        CSA goes to Smartwings    
Sweden                    10,551,494      10,606,999        
Portugal                   10,430,738      10,425,292       TAP

Greece                     10,242,908      10,047,817       Aegean    
Hungary                     9,686,463       9,676,135        
Austria                       9,130,429       9,120,813            
Belarus                      9,115,680        9,056,696         allied elsewhere    

In simpler terms this now indicates that the regular passenger airlines of the top 18 largest European countries which remain to be possibly taken over are 

LOT                 Poland       38.5 million 

Tarom              Romania     19.0 million

TAP                 Portugal     10.4 million 

Aegean            Greece       10.0 million

plus Air Europa  (Spain)       47.9 million

and Volotea  (Spain)            10.4 million

and a selection from smaller countries like Serbia, Croatia and Bulgaria.

So IAG has few options in Europe, apart from Finnair. TAP should not even be considered as a target, however interesting the Portuguese language markets in South America and Africa might be. The EU will be sure to put very strong conditions on any possible union with TAP as it did with Air Europa. Why waste the time and effort?

 OH-LZT - Airbus A321-231 - Finnair

The obvious choices are LOT or Aegean.

 SX-DNE Aegean Airlines Airbus A320-232(WL)

 The Greeks have an interesting home market which by necessity is very active (island hopping). My bet, though, is LOT.

SP-LRC LOT - Polish Airlines Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner

 This airline is run by (nationalistic) Poles who can fix anything from leaks upwards and are being very ambitious. They already operate flights from Prague and Budapest, as well as Poland, to the disporas in North America. The Poles are already building a modern new hub in the centre of the country which would be excellent to complement London LHR and Madrid Barajas. Help them build up their markets, just as Aer Lingus has been helped to gain market share in North America by BA/IAG. IAG with such a merger(or takeover) would gain stronger presence in Eastern Europe, the Baltic area and South Scandinavia  --- with Finnair, even better. It would be impossible to encounter with the EU authorities the same difficulties as would have to be shown to Lufthansa and AF/KLM were they rivals in any such merger/takeover.

List of largest airlines in Europe   (Wikipedia)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_airlines_in_Europe

 

Apart from the "legacy" airlines mentioned there are other airlines which might not want to form part of any airline group. The biggest "low-cost" airline in Europe is Ryanair which has its subsidiaries including Buzz (Poland), Lauda Europe and Malta Air (Malta), and its UK subsidiary RyanairUK. The passengers flown in 2023 reached 181.74 million for the whole group.

The next biggest "low cost" carrier is Easyjet with its subsidiaries in the UK, Switzerland and Austria at 82.8 million passengers which it flew in 2023.

The third "low-cost" airline is Wizzair based in Hungary (60.3 million passengers in 2023) but with subsidiaries also in the UK and the United Arab Emirates. This seems to suggest that they see their principal area for expansion in the Middle Eastern countries, outside Europe. They might even have ambitions to fly to Pakistan, India and Bangladesh from the Persian Gulf as people from those countries provide the backbone of the labour force in the Gulf. The Arab states have also started up their own low-cost airlines so the competition should be fierce.

After those three airlines the other big low-cost airlines form part of the three big airline groups Vueling (short haul) and LEVEL(long haul) (IAG); Eurowings (short-haul) and Discover(long-haul) under Lufthansa;

EC-NRG - Airbus A330-202 - Level (Iberia)

 D-AIUS - Airbus A320-214 - Discover Airlines 

Transavia is the subsidiary low-cost airline for both KLM and Air France. Vis a vis the public this is just one operating company but legally there are two, a subsidiary for each of the parents. These airlines of the three groups seem destined to be the vehicles for their expansion.

 PH-YHA - Airbus A321-252NX - Transavia

Apart from these six aforementioned airlines there are others eeking out a niche for themselves in the market. The biggest of these is Norwegian Air Shuttle (short haul)

SE-RTG - Boeing 737-8 MAX - Norwegian

 while a new airline has arisen to take over the long haul services which that operator could not make work called, Norse Atlantic Airways. This flies from Oslo and then differing services from Paris, London and Rome, and sometimes Berlin. They mostly go to the west and east coasts of the USA together with some Caribbean islands and Bangkok as alternatives.

LN-FNA - Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner - Norse Atlantic Airways

Norwegian flew 20.6 million passengers in 2023 while Norse Atlantic flew 980.000 passengers in 2023. The future for these two airlines is not clear as they will find it hard to maintain a presence in a highly competitive market. The best bet for Norwegian would be to link up with Easyjet to provide a stronger competitor for Ryanair.

For Norse Atlantic we will have to look at the other candidates in the long-haul low-cost market. Discover is Lufthansa´s candidate. LEVEL would be IAG´s candidate flying from Barcelona. In France we have two possibilities which fly mostly to France´s overseas possessions, in the Caribbean, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean as well as other former possessions in Africa.These are Frenchbee and Corsair both are attractive partners though might choose difficult to court.

F-HREN French bee Airbus A350-941

F-HZOE - Corsair / Corsair Intl Airbus A330-900

The remaining airlines of any stature might well be Tarom, Air Serbia, Croatia Airlines, and Bulgaria Air but these are really minnows  who add little or nothing to any grouping. The only two which remain, of any substance are Volotea and Air Baltic. Volotea we have seen before in this article. It is a Spanish airline which operates mostly in France, Italy and Spain from minor airports and has grown to 10.4million passengers(2023) which would be an interesting morsal for any airline. The remaining airline to mention is Air Baltic. This is based in Riga (Latvia) but has grown to serve all three of the Baltic States, plus Tampere (Finland) and Las Palmas (Gran Canaria). Its passengers carried in 2023 came to 4.54million.It is a very agressive airline seeking to maintain costs by only using A220 aircraft and extending its reach throughout the whole of Europe with particular emphasis in Eastern Europe. This is an interesting candidate for IAG to set up another low-cost carrier for the Northern half of Europe to complement Vueling in the Southern half.

 YL-AAV - Airbus A220-371 - Air BalticThus I see the European airline  market for consolidation. Will it turn out the way I suggest - who knows? It will, however, still take some time to achieve and a lot could happen in that time, including game changing disasters. Let us see.