I have not seen any comment on this very important point. When a new line is built existing services can be diverted on to the new line, or a completely new operator can operate the trains. With the opening of the Channel Tunnel Rail Link (HS1) the train services were already up and running. Eurostar operates (then and now) the passenger services from St.Pancras through the Chunnel to continue to Paris, or Brussels and Amsterdam. There are negotiations about Eurostar extending some services to Switzerland (Zurich and Geneva).But that is in the future together with other alternative services to Germany and the south of France.
Between London St.Pancras and the English south coast "local services" operate taking advantage of the new line. These were put into the hands of the Southeastern railway who operate fast "local" services to the distant reaches of Kent with their "Javelins". These cut the times run from Ramsgate, Canterbury and Dover (amongst others) to just over an hour - which is very competitive.
On the completion of Crossrail1 from Reading, across London to Shenfield in Essex, it was renamed as the Elizabeth Line and runs its own new trains to the destinations along the lines. This has proven to be a tremendous success. There are even "complaints" about overcrowding at certain times.
With the introduction of the Elizabeth Line the service previously called Heathrow Connect , has been incorporated into the Elizabeth Line so no longer exists. That has freed up platform space at Paddington as the services no longer terminate there but continue through Central London to Shenfield(Essex) or Abbey Wood (Kent). The net result has seen a big reduction in the demand for services of the Heathrow Express from Paddington to Heathrow Airport terminals (2 & 3) and T5. On the other side of London we also have Stansted Express train services from Liverpool Street to Stansted Airport. They only stop, on their way, at Tottenham Hale to connect to Underground services in North London. To this blogger´s way of thinking, and after seeing it done in other countries, I would suggest combining the two express services so that they become the Heathrow - Stansted Express. They then run services along the Elizabeth Line through Central London until they have to branch off to Tottenham Hale. Obviously, they also stop at all the stations in Central London along the part of the Elizabeth Line that they use. Ownership of the service can be split between the current owners of both services, but separate from the Elizabeth Line. This would be the possibility of introducing competition on the Elizabeth Line.
HS2: part of my thinking was towards the need for platforms for HS2. At the moment everything has been built around the idea of Euston being the HS terminus. I would adopt a different approach from the start by introducing competition from the start.
At Paddington station the subtraction of the Heathrow Connect and Heathrow Express services should mean the freeing up of at least two platforms, maybe more, for other use. These could then permit Great Western trains to offer a service of two trains per hour to Birmingham Curzon Street along HS2. On reaching Birmingham, as they would go where the customers are, they would continue further into the West Midlands. One service per hour would continue to Stourbridge Junction where it would terminate. The other hourly service would terminate at Longbridge. Whether the trains stop at all the stations along the routes from Birmingham Curzon Street to the West Midlands destinations must be decided.
Another alternative of services would be run by Chiltern Trains. They would leave from Marylebone station(if two platforms could be made available for services to Birmingham) or from Euston if the first option were not possible. Two trains per hour would run to Birmingham Curzon Street with the first continuing to Wolverhampton via Sandwell & Dudley. The second train would have to reverse out to Wolverhampton to go via Witton and Perry Barr. In both cases it has to be decided at which stations the trains stop from Birmingham Curzon Street to their final destination at Wolverhampton.
Both the Great Western and Chiltern rail services would thus offer a total of 4 tph. which would run to Birmingham Curzon Street. Would that be enough?
The intercity trains from Euston that go to Liverpool, Manchester, Chester and Holyhead, North West England and Scotland would continue to be operated by the incumbent operator, Avanti West Coast. These trains would stop at the proposed Interchange station near Birmingham Airport. This would mean more Birmingham trains but at the Interchange, not at Curzon Street station. If all the trains stopped there then the demand for Birmingham trains northwards would be satisfied, eliminating the need for trains to start from Birmingham to go northwards as at present. This saves train paths along the rest of the WCML (West Coast Main Line).
The capacity of HS2 is estimated at 18 trains per hour(tph) but a more likely outcome is no more than 16 tph. initially. If we have 4tph. (Great Western and Chiltern) already going to the West Midlands then we are left with 12 tph. for other destinations. Avanti would want 9 of those paths per hour. That would mean capacity of 3 tph. remains for future use.
The service pattern could be...........
This means that 4 tph. would go from Paddington and Marylebone to Birmingham Curzon Street before continuing to their final destination. The 9 trains per hour which leave from London Euston would stop at the Birmingham Interchange for the Airport and connecting services into Birmingham proper (either Curzon Street or New Street). These would then continue on to their destinations further north.
The stopping patterns of the train services depends on several variables. What has to be excluded is the idea that we run trains non-stop to their respective destinations.Thus there will be no trains that go London to Glasgow or Edinburgh, or Liverpool or Manchester non-stop. They are non-starters. The trains have to go where the demand is which means stopping at the principal stations along the route - the principal stop would be Birmingham. This comes down to the trains having the same or very similar stopping patterns to the existing ones.
Improvements in times would certainly be achieved with new lines (this has been excluded as an option by the cancellation of HS2 north of Birmingham) or by upgrading the existing WCML (which is the more likely solution). This latter possibility has not been put forward yet so we cannot speculate on the end product nor its possibilities. However, this blogger did put forward some ideas in his article of 6/6/2023 titled "The Crewe to Manchester fast railway link, and the WCML." So we can consider that the 4hr.30 min. needed at present for the journey from London to Glasgow could be reduced considerably, even down to three hours end-to-end, and even with the same stopping patterns as at present.
Returning to the existing plans for HS2 we could look at going back to the original idea of services to Leeds and Bradford, now cancelled. This was the HS2b eastern leg. A new line will not be built from Birmingham to Leeds/Bradford. On the other hand the existing line through Derby and Chesterfield to Sheffield can be up-graded.This could then be extended (with necessary improvements, of course) to Leeds and Bradford (especially). If we work on the principal that when the possibility opens up for such a service the full capacity of 18 tph. along HS2 could be used then we have the possibility of running trains to Leeds and Bradford. 5tph would be on offer. 3tph could go to Wakefield and Leeds while 2 thp. go to Bradford. All 5 trains would go though and stop at the Birmingham Interchange, Tamworth, Burton, Derby, Chesterfield and Sheffield, and then on to their final destinations. The operator for these services to Leeds and Bradford could be East Midland trains. If this is so then the trains could leave from St. Pancras. If there is no room at St.Pancras the trains would have to leave from Euston.
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